The next outlet for mobile phone supply chain: automotive electronics industry

IDC report data show that the global smartphone market will fall another 0.2% to 1.462 billion in 2018, and the Chinese market will fall another 7.1%.



When the environment is cold, the supply chain is also affected.



The decrease of total orders leads to the shrinkage of the whole market share. Supply chain urgently needs to maintain sales so as to ensure the utilization rate of production lines. It has to intensify the price war and make the competitive environment worse. This phenomenon is also reflected in the stock market, supply chain share prices of most listed companies have dropped after the end of the first half of the year.



At the moment, the most urgent need for mobile phone supply chain is to find the next blue ocean. With the popularity of new energy vehicles and the rapid expansion of the automotive electronic market, automotive electronics has become the next turning point in the mobile phone supply chain.



Automotive electronics market demand outbreak, supply chain collective layout



Data show that in 2017, the total number of new vehicle projects put into the country reached 91, 21 provinces launched new energy vehicle projects, the investment scale reached 528.3 billion yuan; various types of automobile enterprises have already made public new energy vehicle production planning, by 2020 will exceed 20 million vehicles.



When the concept of new energy continues to spread in the automotive industry, it has greatly promoted the development of the automotive electronics industry. In addition, the proportion of electronic cost of new energy vehicles is much higher than before. The increase of new energy vehicle production and sales will directly enhance the market demand of the automotive electronics industry.



The capacity of new energy vehicles will explode in the next three years, and demand for supply chains will blowout.



Industry personnel said: "With the popularity of new energy vehicles, demand will continue to increase, whether in the future camera, display screen, battery or PCB industry, the entire automotive electronic supply chain will appear a new situation."



From the financial reports and announcements of many listed companies in the supply chain, the author has mentioned the company's layout and development in the field of automotive electronics many times.



A technology in its semi-annual performance announcement pointed out: the company will fully layout the smart car and car networking, creating a "two-wheel drive" new model. During the reporting period, orders for automotive electronics products increased, and on-board cameras and central control system products began to be gradually produced in large quantities; business income was 207 million yuan, up 61.55% year on year.



In the field of automotive electronics, an optical enterprise focuses on the supply of vehicle lens.



It is understood that since 2004, the company has gradually occupied a place in the global field of on-board lens, BMW, BenZ and other international well-known brands to supply. At this stage, the company's vehicle lens shipment 3.5-4KK per month, an increase of 24.9% over the same period.



It is worth mentioning that the PCB plate this year has become one of the most profitable industries because of the development of the new energy automobile industry. Looking at the stock prices of the listed companies in PCB, there has been a trend of sustained strength for several days.



PCB plate represents one of the enterprises Shennan Circuit, recently accepted the agency survey said: the company looks forward to the future development of the automotive electronic market, is also increasing the breakthrough in this field. In the future, with the emergence of various terminal applications (vehicle networking, Internet of Things) and the ubiquity of communication plans, automobiles may also become large mobile terminals, and the company's technological advantages in the field of communications can be further extended.



Will the rapid expansion of capacity trigger a productivity bubble?



From the current supply chain enterprises in the automotive electronics industry layout, many companies are looking forward to this area become the second growth pole since consumer electronics.



In fact, compared with AI and 5G, the development of new energy vehicles is indeed faster; coupled with the promotion of good policies, local governments actively invite investment, enterprises wantonly planning production capacity. Statistics show that the total planned capacity of each automobile enterprise has reached 10 times as much as the "long-term development plan for the automobile industry" put forward by the relevant state departments.



However, with the expansion of the terminal market and the positive response of the supply chain enterprises, will it lead to the overcapacity of the automotive electronics industry?



Aiming at the problem of excess capacity, Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, said: "According to the current population density, the peak value of car ownership is expected to reach 400-500 vehicles. By 2035, China's car ownership is expected to reach 600-850 million vehicles, so the future of such a large market size will lead to production capacity. Substantial expansion. "



First of all, any industry will experience a period of expansion in the rapid development stage; secondly, the automotive market not only still has some room for growth, compared with the rapid replacement of smart phones, the automotive product cycle is also very long, more conducive to maintaining a stable market supply and demand.



But for the supply chain companies that have experienced the rise and fall of the smartphone industry, there should also be a sense of security.



In the early stage of industrial development, large-scale production capacity, even if there is no bubble, may lead to a highly saturated capacity of the supply chain. As a result, it is very likely that the development of automotive electronics industry will be limited by price war. In the face of a new industry, reasonable planning of production capacity at the same time, maintaining a good product gross profit and competitive environment is the way to make the industry develop for a longer time.